The tension at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) is thicker than ever. On a dramatic Day 4 of the Boxing Day Test, Australia moved within touching distance of retaining the Ashes—needing just four more wickets as England ended the day at 207 for 6, still chasing a mammoth 435 to win. A devastating final session led by captain Pat Cummins and spin wizard Nathan Lyon has put the visitors on the brink of collapse and handed Australia a golden opportunity to seal the series with one game to spare.
After setting England a daunting target of 435, Australia began the day with quiet confidence. Early resistance from England’s openers gave fans a glimmer of hope, but the Australian seamers never relented. The real damage, however, came in the post-tea session—a period that has become synonymous with Australian dominance in home Tests.
With the Ashes hanging in the balance, Pat Cummins channeled his inner Glenn McGrath, combining precision with relentless pressure. Nathan Lyon, often underestimated in overseas conditions, proved once again why he’s Australia’s second-highest wicket-taker in Test history. By stumps, England had lost six wickets, and the dream of a historic chase had all but evaporated.
Pat Cummins didn’t just lead from the front—he dismantled England’s middle order with surgical precision. His dismissal of Joe Root—trapped lbw after a brilliant angle across the stumps—was a turning point. But it was his relentless line and length that kept the pressure on throughout.
Nathan Lyon, on the other hand, thrived on the slightly worn MCG pitch. His flight, dip, and subtle variations left England’s batters guessing. His wickets of Harry Brook and Ben Stokes—both caught at slip—were textbook examples of how to exploit uncertainty against high-quality spin.
England’s strategy appeared fatally flawed from the outset:
While Zak Crawley showed flashes of brilliance with the bat, his dismissal just before tea shifted momentum decisively back to Australia.
Realistically, the odds are stacked heavily against England. They still need 228 more runs with only four wickets in hand. For context, the highest successful fourth-innings chase at the MCG is 332—by Australia against England in 1928 . But cricket is a game of miracles.
Hope rests on the lower-middle order—Ollie Pope, Chris Woakes, and Jamie Overton—to defy logic and bat like their careers depend on it (because, for some, it might). If Woakes and Overton can add 100+ for the seventh wicket, suddenly the pressure flips back onto Australia.
Still, with Cummins fresh, Starc ready to crank up the pace, and Lyon waiting to pounce on any lapse in concentration, it’s hard to see England surviving until tea, let alone stumps.
If Australia clinch the series in Melbourne, they’ll retain the Ashes for the third consecutive time—a feat last achieved by them between 2006 and 2014. More importantly, it would be a resounding statement under Pat Cummins’ leadership, silencing critics who questioned his tactical acumen earlier in the series.
For veterans like Steve Smith and Nathan Lyon, it would be a crowning achievement in storied careers. And for young guns like Cameron Green and Alex Carey, it’s the kind of legacy-defining series that cements their place in Australian cricket folklore [INTERNAL_LINK:australia-ashes-winners-history].
As Day 4 faded into twilight at the MCG, the writing was on the wall: Australia are on the cusp of retaining the Ashes. The final session—dominated by Cummins’ fire and Lyon’s guile—has likely decided the fate of this historic series. While England cling to a thread of hope, the balance of skill, pressure, and pitch conditions overwhelmingly favors the home side. Unless a miracle unfolds on Day 5, the urn will stay Down Under.
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