In a statement that’s sent ripples through the cricketing world, legendary former captain MS Dhoni has thrown his weight behind Team India as serious T20 World Cup favourites—but with a crucial caveat. Speaking ahead of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup, Dhoni praised India’s blend of seasoned campaigners and explosive young talent, calling them “one of the most dangerous teams” in the tournament. However, he didn’t hold back on his biggest worry: the unpredictable and often decisive role of dew in evening matches [[1]].
Known for his calm demeanor and tactical genius, Dhoni’s insights carry immense weight—especially in high-pressure tournaments. His dual perspective as both a former World Cup-winning captain and a current mentor within the CSK setup gives him a unique vantage point. And while fans are thrilled by his endorsement of India’s title credentials, his caution about external factors like dew serves as a sobering reminder: in T20 cricket, even the best-laid plans can unravel under the night sky.
Dhoni’s confidence in India stems from three key pillars:
“This team has the right mix of aggression and composure,” Dhoni noted. “They’ve played under pressure before, and that counts for a lot in knockout games” [[2]].
Despite backing India as T20 World Cup favourites, Dhoni zeroed in on dew as a potential equalizer—or spoiler. “When dew sets in, the ball becomes wet, making it extremely hard for bowlers to grip it properly,” he explained. “Spinners lose turn, pacers lose swing, and fielders struggle to hold catches. It completely changes the dynamics of the game.”
This isn’t just theoretical. In past T20 World Cups, teams chasing under lights in subcontinental conditions have enjoyed a significant advantage—often turning 150 into a winning total. Dhoni, who famously led India to the 2007 T20 World Cup title, knows firsthand how conditions can override skill.
The physics of dew in cricket is simple but devastating:
In fact, data from the last three T20 World Cups shows that teams batting second in evening matches in humid climates have won over 68% of the time [[3]]. That’s not luck—it’s meteorology meeting momentum.
Beyond dew, Dhoni emphasized the inherent volatility of the T20 format. “In a 50-over game, you can recover from a bad over. In T20, one over can decide the match,” he said. He pointed to two wildcards:
This unpredictability, Dhoni argues, is why “favourites” often fall early—and why dark horses like Afghanistan or Scotland can’t be ignored [[INTERNAL_LINK:t20-world-cup-dark-horse-teams]].
While the squad is deep, a few names stand out:
Dhoni suggested practical strategies:
He also stressed the importance of mental resilience: “You can’t control the weather. But you can control your response to it.”
MS Dhoni’s assessment is clear: India has the talent, depth, and experience to be genuine T20 World Cup favourites. But as he wisely cautions, cricket—especially T20—is rarely decided by paper strength alone. Dew, luck, and moments of individual magic will play their part. If Team India can adapt to the elements and embrace the chaos of the format, they might just end their long ICC trophy drought. If not, even the strongest favourites can fade under the floodlights.
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